Oil Jumps Despite a No-Strike Pledge: Markets Believe Trump Until the Next Headline

Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday after reports that the US could strike Iran again before November's midterm elections. Brent settled at $104.28 a barrel, up 4 per cent; US crude at $91.49. Diesel futures jumped 6 per cent in European trading. On Wall Street the S&P 500 fell 0.5 per cent and the Nasdaq 1.2 per cent. President Trump then surprised everyone by promising not to resume air strikes before the midterms. Markets noted this and kept buying oil.

That is the real story: on commodity exchanges, a pledge from the US president now has roughly the shelf life of a weather forecast. And the promise is remarkably precise about its timing. Peace until polling day is not a peace plan, it is a campaign calendar.

The global economy has the most sophisticated forecasting models in history. They still get moved by a single post on Truth Social.

For Germany, the diesel spike is the number that matters. Hauliers, tradespeople and commuters pay the risk premium straight at the pump, long before a single barrel actually goes missing. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since the war began in late February. The finance industry calls this a "geopolitical risk premium". At the petrol station it is simply called: more expensive.