Iran Threatens Pre-emptive Strikes: Prevention, Now with Missiles

Iran's army said on Wednesday it would strike pre-emptively if necessary to forestall "aggression". Army spokesman Mohammad Akrami-Nia called such operations legitimate as long as they were necessary, urgent and proportionate, citing a July missile strike on a US base in Jordan as an example, and said military doctrine had shifted from defensive to offensive. Separately, Revolutionary Guards adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said the Strait of Hormuz was closed and would stay that way until Iran's demands were met.

The numbers behind it are stark. Instead of around 125 ships a day before the war, which began in late February with US-Israeli strikes, an average of about 10 now pass through the strait. A day later, Iranian strikes hit two tankers outside it. Meanwhile Washington is publicly questioning how much power President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still hold.

Pre-emptive strike is a lovely phrase. It means: we are preventing the war by starting it, just to be safe.

Diplomatic channels via Qatar, Pakistan and China remain open, with little progress. Both sides want to project strength without triggering a wider war. In theory that works beautifully. In practice each side considers its own threats deterrence and the other side's threats provocation.